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Stroke outcome modelling

Predicting disability outcomes and utility after treatment of stroke with thrombolysis (IVT) or thrombectomy (MT)

📚 Definitions reference

Definitions for stroke
Definitions for maths

🧮 Outcome model

Defining modified Rankin Scale (mRS) probability distributions for untreated patients, and predicted distributions if treatment given at time of stroke onset
Calculating odds and probabilities of mRS-level outcomes after stroke, based on time to reperfusion treatment
Example output from stroke outcome model
Demonstration of added utility depending on time to IVT and MT
Distance-based treatment effects
Distance-based treatment effects (plot for different stroke types)
Show outcome model python code
Proportion of ischaemic patients with LVO

👑 Interactive demo

Streamlit app

📦 stroke-outcome package

Stroke outcome
Documentation: Continuous outcome model
Demo: Continuous outcome model
Documentation: Discrete outcome model
Demo: discrete outcome model

Application to England and Wales

Emergency stroke admissions predictions
Model outcomes for drip’and’ship vs mothership based on greography
Analysis of LSOA results: Added utility
Analysis of LSOA results: change in mRS less than three
Analysis of LSOA results: mRS mean shift

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Definitions for stroke

Definitions for stroke#

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Predicting disability outcomes and utility after treatment of stroke with thrombolysis (IVT) or thrombectomy (MT)

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By Anna Laws, Kerry Pearn, Michael Allen, Peter McMeekin, and Martin James

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